Public verificationMethodology

Strata-Weather Forecast Verification

Rolling 90-day scorecards compare each public lane to its declared baseline. Claims only publish when completeness is at least 80% and the bootstrap 95% confidence interval excludes zero.

Stations

Cadence

8/day

Flow backfill

0/30 days

Artifact

public-skill-scorecards-v1

Zenith Flow

Baseline: Eulerian persistence · Metric: Temperature MAE

Verifying

verifying

90-day sparkline awaiting settled samples.

Completeness: 0%
Samples: 0/3600
Lane MAE: verifying
Eulerian persistence MAE: verifying
Delta: verifying
95% CI: verifying

Zenith Middle

Baseline: HRRR · Metric: Temperature MAE

Verifying

verifying

90-day sparkline awaiting settled samples.

Completeness: 0%
Samples: 0/3600
Lane MAE: verifying
HRRR MAE: verifying
Delta: verifying
95% CI: verifying

Regional Lite

Baseline: Raw NBM · Metric: Temperature MAE

Verifying

verifying

90-day sparkline awaiting settled samples.

Completeness: 0%
Samples: 0/3600
Lane MAE: verifying
Raw NBM MAE: verifying
Delta: verifying
95% CI: verifying

Global FCN3

Baseline: GFS · Metric: Temperature MAE

Verifying

verifying

90-day sparkline awaiting settled samples.

Completeness: 0%
Samples: 0/3600
Lane MAE: verifying
GFS MAE: verifying
Delta: verifying
95% CI: verifying

Methodology

Declared baselines

Flow compares to Eulerian persistence; Middle to HRRR; Regional Lite to raw NBM; Global FCN3 to GFS. Missing baseline samples keep the lane in verifying state.

Truth lag

A valid time is scored only after the observation has had at least two hours to settle. Samples store truthSettledAt for auditability.

Completeness

Missed scheduled samples count against the rolling window. Public claims require at least 80% completeness.

Confidence interval

Daily lane-vs-baseline skill deltas are bootstrapped into a 95% interval. If the interval crosses zero, the card shows verifying instead of a marketing claim.

Flow-vs-persistence backfill

The public claim gate requires 30 distinct days of Zenith Flow against Eulerian persistence; current proof is 0 days, so unproven claims remain verifying.

Loss display

A statistically settled loss is shown in the same card style as a win, with the baseline, window, metric, and completeness still visible.